What makes modern prediction markets such as Polymarket different from traditional betting platforms? On many of them, you can place bets anonymously.
That opens the door to potential insider trading in a way that is far harder on regulated platforms with stricter identity checks.
An FT analysis identified that the US attack on Iran was preceded by unusually large, well-timed bets. Twelve suspicious accounts placed trades in the days before Saturday morning’s air strikes, generating a combined profit of $330,000.
The episode highlights how anonymous, crypto-based betting sites that do not require users in most jurisdictions to verify their identity could pose a greater risk to sensitive information than previously recognised, especially concerning military operations that rely on surprise.
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